The Nordstream time bomb

Letter from Brussels

By Eric Bonse

[This article posted on August 20, 2024 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://makroskop.eu/27-2024/zeitbombe-nordstream/.]

The latest revelations about the attack on the Baltic Sea gas pipeline don't sit well with the EU. After all, they do not point to Russia as expected, but to Ukraine. That is why they are being suppressed - there is no longer any talk of sanctions in Brussels.

It was once the largest infrastructure project in Europe. Then it became the biggest criminal case, with some even calling it a war crime. Now it threatens to become an example of repression and cover-up.

We are talking about Nordstream - the German-Russian gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea, which were largely (if not completely) destroyed by an act of sabotage in September 2022. Two years later, the perpetrators are still on the loose and Poland is said to have helped one of the main suspects to escape.

But instead of being outraged by this and intensifying the manhunt, those politically responsible are trying to sweep the attack under the carpet, protect the (alleged) perpetrators and shift the blame.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is taking a particularly brazen approach. In a provocative tweet, the former EU Council President not only called for the investigation to be stopped and for no more annoying questions to be asked.

Tusk also appealed to the “initiators and promoters” of Nordstream to apologize. The liberal Pole demanded “Apologize and keep quiet” - a barely concealed attempt to distract attention from the perpetrators and place the blame on the German operators.

An unheard-of procedure that is causing considerable disgruntlement in Berlin's government district. However, the EU in Brussels is still acting as if nothing has happened - and as if there is no need for action.

Tusk's tweet would not be commented on, said a spokesperson. They would also not comment on any new revelations. The fact that the suspicion now falls on Ukraine is not worth a reaction from the EU.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell had initially gone out on a limb. Just a few hours after the attack, they presented themselves as relentless avengers.

“Any deliberate destruction of actively used European energy infrastructure is unacceptable and will lead to the harshest possible response,” declared von der Leyen shortly after the attack . Borrell did not want to be left behind.

The act of sabotage “will be met with a robust and joint response”, declared the Spaniard on behalf of all 27 EU states. NATO also threatened a “joint and decisive” response.

The reference was of course to Russia, which was long regarded as the main suspect in NATO circles. The blowing up of Nordstream was seen in Brussels as part of the “hybrid war” against Europe; the EU and NATO moved even closer together.

However, neither a joint task force to protect critical infrastructure nor new NATO missions in the Baltic Sea (the US alliance even set up an underwater situational awareness center) led to a “hot” Russian lead.

No evidence of a Russian attack has been found to date. This is not really surprising - after all, what interest would Moscow have in destroying a project from which it benefited the most?

All the more evidence of Ukrainian involvement is mounting. According to research by ARD, Zeit and SZ, Federal Prosecutor General Jens Rommel obtained an arrest warrant for a suspected Ukrainian in June. He is said to have last been in Poland, but was able to escape. Two other Ukrainian nationals, including a woman, are considered suspects.

The case was given a new, explosive twist by a report in the Wall Street Journal. According to the report, the Ukrainian head of state Volodymyr Selenskyj was informed about the planning of the attack. The German government had also been warned, wrote the US newspaper.

If these reports are true, the history of the largest attack on critical European energy infrastructure to date will have to be rewritten. Kiev would then be just as much to blame as Berlin, and even US involvement no longer seems out of the question.

After all, the most explosive revelations come from Washington. From the outset, there was speculation that the blowing up of the Baltic Sea pipelines could have been planned by the USA together with other countries. Seymour Hersh still adheres to this (controversial) theory today.

Relations between Germany and Ukraine also appear in a new, glaring light. Suddenly it no longer seems inconceivable that Ukraine, or high-ranking Ukrainian perpetrators, deliberately attacked German interests - and that Berlin was warned.

This could have the effect of a bomb, just like the blowing up of Nordstream two years ago. The revelations are like a second explosion that has been triggered with a timer and is gradually unfolding its potentially devastating political effect.

It is precisely this effect that Brussels wants to avoid at all costs. After all, the policy of the new EU Commission, which von der Leyen intends to form in the coming weeks, is geared towards Ukraine from head to toe. From European financial and arms aid to EU accession - everything revolves around Kiev.

The latest revelations about Nordstream are only a distraction. The EU is therefore likely to do everything it can in the coming weeks to suppress the uncomfortable news and cover up the crime. There is no longer any talk of sanctions anyway. Because they were only intended for Russia - who else?

Eric Bonse is a political scientist and journalist. From 1994 to 2001, he worked for the “Tagesspiegel” and the “Handelsblatt” in Paris. Since 2004, he has been reporting for various German media as an EU correspondent from Brussels.