Observation case: protection of the constitution
The
vague term "liberal democratic basic order" allows those in power to
take action against opposition forces that do not suit them.
The
domestic intelligence service protects – but whom and from what? The
constitution from its enemies? But according to Article 146 of the Basic
Law (GG), this would first have to be "decided by the German people in a
free vote". Of
course, fundamental rights are worth protecting, along with the "social
constitutional state" and the "peace requirement" of the Basic Law. But
according to the Federal Constitution Protection Act (BVerfSchG), the
Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution is not supposed to
monitor compliance with fundamental rights, but to collect and evaluate
information on efforts "against the free democratic basic order". And
this "fdGO" is not a legal norm of the Basic Law, but a political term
of struggle that is used by the government or the Federal Office for the
Protection of the Constitution (VS) against alleged enemies of the
constitution according to political expediency – for example, by
imposing professional bans.
by Georg Rammer
[This
article posted on 8/2/2024 is translated from the German on the
Internet,
https://www.manova.news/artikel/beobachtungsfall-verfassungsschutz.]
Doubts
are justified when it comes to the democratic basis of the service.
Rolf Gössner, who was illegally monitored by the VS for decades, speaks
of a "license to control attitudes" and of the "power of definition" of
the FRG domestic intelligence service, which was installed from its
inception as a bulwark against communists and to secure rearmament and
integration with the West. In
line with this intention, the Nazi Hubert Schrübbers, who was president
of the VS from 1955 to 1972, ensured that the office was characterized
by numerous old comrades from the days of fascism. And the last VS
president, Hans-Georg Maaßen, was not known to hold the post as an
exemplary democrat, but as a sympathizer and supporter of right-wing
extremist groups.
The list of criminal actions and unsolved machinations of the VS is long. A
few examples to remind you: an explosives attack on a prison in order
to blame left-wing extremists for the crime ("Celler Loch"), shredding
all documents that could prove the VS's involvement in crimes, intimate
connections with NSU terrorists via informants, and the murder of Halit
Yozgat in the presence of a member of the domestic intelligence service.
How can we trust an organization with such a past and such criminal energy?
In
response to a parliamentary question, the federal government clearly
admitted that it wanted to harm the Marxist daily newspaper
economically. The jW describes the resulting problems in renting
advertising space, broadcasting advertising spots or hindering editorial
work. The
government could announce that it had achieved its goal, because the
"effectiveness" of the newspaper is to be restricted – regardless of
what the constitution says. That is precisely why the left-wing daily
newspaper is repeatedly mentioned in the VS report in order to "remove
the further breeding ground for anti-constitutional efforts (...).
It
is well known that the aim is to use economic pressure to deprive
critical media and organizations such as Attac, the Association of
Persecutees of the Nazi Regime (VVN) or the NachDenkSeiten of their
breeding ground. In the case of junge Welt, the federal government is
particularly clear in its formulation that the paper wants to create a
"counter-public" through the selection of topics and the intensity of
its reporting, which is aimed at presenting left-wing and "left-wing
extremist" political ideas.
Does
this mean, by implication, that only the government's official view may
be disseminated in the media? That major opinion-forming newspapers
voluntarily follow this line of thought does not need to be discussed
here.
The
German government's reasoning for why the Marxist view of the class
structure of society violates the constitution deserves particular
attention:
"For example, the division of a society according to the
characteristic of product-oriented class membership contradicts the
guarantee of human dignity. People must not be degraded to 'mere
objects' or subordinated to a collective, but the individual must always
be treated as fundamentally free."
In
this case, it is not the actual class society and the treatment of
people as objects, as a cost factor or as customers that are being
described as a violation of human dignity, but rather the criticism of
these conditions and the intention to change them. The
fact that people in the world of work or in the system of global
exploitation are deprived of their dignity through poverty, blatant
social inequality and, indeed, their health and their lives, is
apparently not a problem for the federal government; according to it,
the person or newspaper that denounces these conditions and wants to
change them is violating the constitution. Note: You are an enemy of the
constitution if you criticize the fact that the constitution is not
being realized.
The
Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution is doing its best
to construct and maintain the illusion of a functioning democracy that
is only threatened by enemies from within and without. The more the gap
between the state narrative and everyday experiences full of crises and
wars becomes palpable, the more the secret service focuses on the fight
against "disinformation".
The
FAZ reported in May last year that the current president of the VS,
Thomas Haldenwang, sees democracy in Germany as being in danger from
Russian influence: "Russia is active at all levels and is spreading its
disinformation, propaganda and narratives." Haldenwang's example: the
narrative that Russia is also waging war against Ukraine because its
security interests have been violated by the West. In
this case, historical facts that have been proven many times over are
being labeled as Russian disinformation – and not by some deluded
ignoramus, but by the president of the VS – which apparently does not
contradict itself.
The
logical consequence of such a systematic distortion of reality is the
new extremism category "delegitimization of the state relevant to the
protection of the constitution". This term is worthy of an authoritarian
state. Arbitrarily interpretable word shells provide the reason for
being branded as an enemy of the constitution. An insider recently
warned as a whistleblower that the VS is undermining the rule of law;
the secret service is taking legal action against him. The
constitutional protection officer, who apparently takes this
designation seriously, said that this new category creates "a suspicion
of people by reinterpreting and perverting language". "What was legal
criticism yesterday can be a reason to be targeted by the constitutional
protection agency today" ("Suddenly an enemy of the state:
constitutional protection agency targets whistleblower",
schwaebische.de, June 3, 2024).
One
could suspect that the state is working on its own delegitimization,
through growing poverty and social inequality, through restrictions on
freedom of expression and freedom of the press, militarization and war
missions that go far beyond defense.
A
few days ago, Amnesty International published a "Report Germany 2023".
It should give us and the state food for thought. The human rights
organization sees freedom of assembly in Germany as being restricted by
blanket bans on gatherings, preventive detention and violent police
tactics. Authorities are increasingly using unlawful violence and
enacting repressive laws to quell protests, activists have been held in
preventive detention for up to 30 days. A
restrictive law on assembly encroaches disproportionately on the right
of assembly and could deter people from demonstrating. Protests in
solidarity with the rights of Palestinians have been banned as a
preventive measure.
The protection of fundamental rights against
state interference and the realization of democracy, according to which
all state power must emanate from the people, cannot be left to the
secret service.
As
a psychologist in family support, Georg Rammer has dealt with the
causes and consequences of poverty and inequality. As a politically
committed publicist, he draws attention to other topics: What impact
does neoliberal radicalized capitalism have on people and society? What
goals does the "Western community of values" pursue economically and
militarily? How
does the power elite influence people's thoughts and feelings through
manipulation and propaganda – and what are the consequences? And: the
destruction of humanity through militarism and war.
Related article
The rich, the poor and the good
The
forces that have the most power globally are also influential enough to
disguise that power – with the help of divisive propaganda.
02.08.2024 by Thomas Eisinger
Current article
Corona and no end
From the archive
In 1977, two years after America's catastrophic defeat in Southeast Asia, the late Stanley Hoffmann published a book entitled Primacy or World Order. I have long appreciated Hoffmann, a scholar of Austrian-French origin who taught foreign relations at Harvard, for his ability to grasp our global situation with extraordinary clarity. The book mentioned is a good example of this. America's humiliating defeat in Vietnam had made the inescapable choice that now faced America clearer than at any time since 1945: it could continue to insist on its newly won hegemony or it could help to build a world order worthy of the name, but it would have to choose one or the other.
Vacation for good
by Henry-Martin Klemt
[This
comment posted on 8/2/2024 is translated from the German on the
Internet,
https://das-blaettchen.de/2024/07/urlaub-fuer-immer-69477.html.]
In case of doubt, I
face the silence
. With my mouth open
I breathe and remain silent. I breathe
in and out. I bow to
photosynthesis. A rootless
person in the forest, I feast my eyes on the
hungry anarchy. The swift-footed
love of spring is my oracle. My
spell is the migration of birds. I
have forgotten nothing. I have nothing to say
that has not already been
chewed and talked about. I believe
in wars, in purges, in the
departure from all paradises and from
Egypt, in the breaking of every
promise and of all pacts of the
pack. I believe that everything experienced
will be forgotten when the sun
rises and the sleepwalkers march to
their daily work. War refugees,
addicted to peace. The lapdogs
of power bark at a lost
world so that it does not disturb
the downfall that throws its bones
into the beautiful kennel of the
historians every day. Incorrigible, but easy to
train in the global network
of certainties, humanity organizes
itself like iron filings between
the poles of the good cause and the
good cause, irreconcilable, and the
mirrors spit out the faces
before they go blind. Powerlessness wants
to be right at least. Power is
too heavy, too bloody and never good
enough in the long run. World Cup
with an eternal quarter-final. Always on stage,
unplugged and on your own account.
It's easier to go to the polls, pay the
bill and not pay the bill
to pay the bill, wherever it is, namely at the bottom, to
feel strong when the load of the
poles changes, as if you had
achieved it yourself. Or you take
what you can get: Give me the
bread and the games! There the
truncheon, here the banner. The
water cannon there, here the hanging
eye. Here the stormed stock exchange, the dirt
out the window, there the executioners, boots up the stairs. How do you scream:
Motherfucker in gender-sensitive
language, so that everyone can
feel included? Rape
in concrete. Landscape with burning
lungs. It's nice when past times
borrow clothes and songs and desire
of the future. When the fields
spew out treasures and reveal secrets
and the stones patience and
the surf not giving up.
When the executioners shrink, the
beheaded head in their fist,
to the standard size of the amoeba. I
have seen all this, the present,
which was already the future, which still
remains the past. You have also known
all this since the day when the first
blow hit you from nowhere, when
the first betrayal strangled you. Why
do you love a person? To be able to
love yourself? You love when you
manage to love humanity within you. There
it is preserved as a hope,
that the wheels will come under your children
the reckless, protected by
nothing from despair
on a bright morning, when they
are there and receive a message
that concerns them. Vacation
forever: my privilege and my
forest, which gives way to the sea, which must
make way for the desert, the steppe,
from which a city grows of the rootless
thin-skinned. They are vulnerable, lazy and
fertile. Peaceful liars and honest
murderers. Incomprehensible, who touch each other
Diplomacy instead of weapons
By the editorial team of German-Foreign-Policy
[This
article posted on August 2, 2024 is translated from the German on the
Internet,
https://www.isw-muenchen.de/online-publikationen/texte-artikel/5277-diplomatie-statt-waffen.]
New efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine: Zelenskyy is
considering "diplomacy instead of weapons"; Beijing is negotiating with
Kiev; Finland's president wants talks. Berlin is doing nothing to end
the war.
Without
any action on the part of the German government, cautious efforts are
emerging to end the war in Ukraine and to find a possible peace
solution.
Frontline: "Many problems at once"
According
to reports, the situation on the front line is deteriorating rapidly
for the Ukrainian armed forces. Russia launched its most extensive
offensive of the year in Donetsk last week, has advanced relatively
quickly in recent weeks and is threatening to cut off important
Ukrainian supply lines.
For
the Ukrainian troops, Gustav Gressel, military expert at the European
Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), believes that "many problems are
now coming together at once: exhausted units, high losses of qualified
personnel, especially in the spring, a lack of ammunition, a lack of
material (especially armored vehicles), vulnerability
to Russian gliding bomb attacks, and hardly any possibility of
intercepting Russian reconnaissance drones."[1] Furthermore, "freshly
mobilized soldiers" have been "detailed to new brigades" and not
integrated into existing brigades; there is a lack of "suitable
leadership personnel" for them. Whether
the much-vaunted F-16 fighter jets could even operate "near the front"
to prevent attacks with gliding bombs is uncertain, among other things
because of the limited range of their radar. Regarding reports about the
"weaknesses of the Russian army" that are so popular in this country,
Gressel says that they obscure the fact that Ukraine has "similar
problems".
Ready to give up territory
Gressel
also points out that the war "is also increasingly straining Ukraine's
morale, resources and infrastructure away from the front line..."[2]
In
fact, in July, a survey of the Ukrainian population found that 44
percent were in favor of entering into peace negotiations with Russia.
In
May 2023, barely 23 percent had done so.[3] Another survey showed that
the proportion of those who would be willing to give up territory in
order to achieve peace had risen from around 9 percent in February 2023
to 32 percent. The
proportion of those who firmly rejected any kind of territorial
renunciation had fallen from around 74 percent in December 2023 to just
55 percent.4 The background to this is, among other things, the growing
burden of massive destruction of infrastructure. At the political level,
there is also a great deal of uncertainty about how a possible US
President Donald Trump would behave towards Kiev.
Like the FRG and the GDR
Against
this background, there are increasing signs that Ukraine could open up
to negotiations on a ceasefire and a possible peace settlement.
After
the failure of an attempt to position the Global South against Russia
at an alleged "peace summit" in Switzerland (german-foreign-policy.com
reported [5]), President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced about ten days
ago that he no longer ruled out talks with Russian President Vladimir
Putin [6]. In
an interview with French media published on Wednesday, Zelenskyy
explicitly stated that he would like to see Russian delegates at the
next "peace summit".[7] Zelenskyy also said that Kiev still insisted on
the territorial integrity of Ukraine; however, this did not necessarily
have to be "fought for with weapons" – diplomatic steps were also
conceivable. In
doing so, Zelensky is moving closer to the option discussed last year
of freezing the front line and finding a practical way to coexist with
Russia without formally recognizing the annexation of Ukrainian
territory.
China as a mediator
"Withdrawal not a prerequisite"
Even
in the West, there are cautious signs of a change of course. This is
evident from statements by Finland's President Alexander Stubb, who has
so far been more of a hardliner on the Ukraine war. In
May, he had still declared that "the only way to peace" was "over the
battlefield".[12] However, at the weekend, in an interview with the
French newspaper Le Monde, he now judged that "we have reached a point
where negotiations must begin".[13] A withdrawal of Russian forces,
which is also constantly being demanded in Berlin as a prerequisite for
negotiations, could not be "regarded as a precondition", Stubb now said.
It is
clear that Zelenskyy will have to make a decision regarding the
territories annexed by Russia. In addition, security guarantees from
Western countries are needed for Ukraine. These
have now been provided in large numbers, but from Kiev's point of view
they all have the disadvantage that they do not give a firm commitment
to defend Ukraine in the event of a renewed Russian attack, but merely
promise to meet for talks within the shortest possible time and to
support Kiev in a similar way to the current war. This also applies to
the German security guarantee (german-foreign-policy.com reported [14]).
Of
course, Ukraine also needs reconstruction aid, Stubb stated. It can be
assumed that Kuleba also discussed this during his visit to Beijing.
Germany? No.
Observers
point out that the talks on a possible ceasefire are at best at an
early stage and that the prospects of success are completely uncertain. At
least indirectly, European politicians are now also involved; for
example, at the beginning of the week, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia
Meloni discussed the war in Ukraine with Chinese President Xi Jinping,
following the recent visit of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to
Beijing [15]. She
believes that Beijing could become "a key player" in the attempt to
identify "elements of a just peace" for Ukraine, Meloni said after the
meeting.[16] There is no information about any efforts by German
government politicians to find ways to achieve a ceasefire.
[1],
[2] Tobias Mayer: Military expert on the situation in the Ukraine war:
"Peace negotiations are pure speculation by beer-table diplomats".
tagesspiegel.de 30.07.2024.
[3]
Nate Ostiller: 44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official
peace talks with Russia, survey finds. kyivindependent.com 15.07.2024.
[4] Brendan Cole: Ukrainian Support for Ceding Territory Surges. newsweek.com 23.07.2024.
[5] See also: Clearly missing the mark
[6] Ella Strübbe: Kremlin praises Zelensky. tagesspiegel.de 22.07.2024. See also the dispute over Viktor Orban
[7]
Thomas d'Istria: Volodymyr Zelensky: renouncing Ukrainian territory is
"a very, very difficult question". lemonde.fr 31.07.2024.
[8] See also The Korean War as a Model and The Transition to Diplomacy
[9]
Thomas d'Istria: Volodymyr Zelensky: renouncing Ukrainian territory is
"a very, very difficult question". lemonde.fr 31.07.2024.
[10] See also On the side of diplomacy (III)
[11] Dan Peleschuk: Kyiv hails dialogue with Beijing, hints at potential Zelenskiy-Xi meeting. reuters.com 30.07.2024.
[12] "Right now, the only way to peace is through the battlefield". Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung 10.05.2024.
[13]
Philippe Ricard: Alexander Stubb, president finlandais, à propos de la
guerre en Ukraine : « Nous arrivons à un point où les négociations
doivent commencer ». lemonde.fr 27.07.2024.
[14] See also The dominance in Central and Eastern Europe
[15] See also the dispute over Viktor Orban
[16]
Riyaz ul Khaliq, Giada Zampano: China can become 'key player' to help
identify peace in Ukraine, says Italian premier. aa.com.tr 30.07.2024.
The Federal Reserve fails
By Michael Roberts
[This
article posted on August 3, 2024 is translated from the German on the
Internet,
https://www.isw-muenchen.de/online-publikationen/texte-artikel/5278-die-federal-reserve-scheitert.]
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) refrained from cutting its key
interest rate from its current peak of 5.25-5.5% at the end of July.
This
was despite the fact that it had noted that the US economy was cooling,
that unemployment was starting to rise and that economic activity was
weakening.
The problem for the Fed, as always, was to keep borrowing
costs high in order to contain inflation, while at the same time
countering the risk that high borrowing costs would lead households to
cut back on their spending and companies to cut back on investment and
employment.
The
Fed, like other central banks in major economies, has an arbitrary (and
rather pointless) inflation target of 2% per year; but unlike other
central banks, it has a "double mandate" to try to maintain employment
and economic growth while reducing inflation. Can the Fed fulfill this
double mandate?
The
Fed likes to claim that it will; indeed, leading economists are united
in their belief that it will achieve this "Goldilocks" scenario of low
inflation and unemployment, with moderately solid economic growth.
But
if the dual mandate is achieved, it will not be because of the Fed's
interest rate policy. As I have argued repeatedly, monetary policy is
supposed to control "aggregate demand" in an economy by making borrowing
for spending (whether consumption or investment) more or less
expensive. But the experience of the recent inflation spike since the
end of the pandemic crisis in 2020 is clear:
Inflation
rose because of weakened and blocked supply chains and the slow
recovery of the manufacturing sector, not because of "excess demand"
caused by either government spending sprees or "excessive" wage
increases, or both. And inflation began to fall as soon as energy and
food shortages and prices eased, blockages in global supply chains were
removed, and production resumed. Monetary policy had little to do with these movements.
And
contrary to the hopes and expectations of Fed Chairman Jay Powell and
all mainstream economists, there are trends in the US economy that
suggest that the dual mandate is unlikely to be achieved. First,
inflation remains "stubborn", i.e. well above the target annual rate of
2%. The
Fed likes to measure US inflation using the personal consumption
expenditure (PCE) price index. This is a complicated measure that
excludes producer prices and energy and food prices – hardly an accurate
measure of the price increases experienced by the majority of
Americans! Nevertheless,
the core PCE price index is currently at 2.6%, below the peak of 5.6%
in 2022, but still well above 2% and the rate for 2019.
The
overall consumer price inflation rate is much higher than the Fed's
measure. It is currently at 3.0%, below the peak of 9% in 2002, but
still a full percentage point above the Fed's illusory target and double
the rate in 2019.
And
as can be seen, the consumer price index seems to be stuck at 3% with
no sign of further decline despite the optimistic statements of
mainstream economists. The reasons for this are obvious to me. First,
as I have argued before and as I have argued above, inflation is not
due to "excess demand" but to weak supply, i.e. low productivity growth
and high commodity prices. Second, prices of many products in the US
economy have risen sharply over the last two years, which does not seem
to be reflected in official price data.
These
include, in particular, the sharp rise in housing costs, health and
motor insurance. A recent FT article acknowledges: "Both are partly a
product of pandemic supply shocks – reduced construction activity and a
shortage of vehicle parts – that are still seeping through the supply
chain. Indeed, the more expensive motor insurance is now a product of
the earlier cost pressures on vehicles. Demand is not the central problem; high rates can do little."
There
is another measure of inflation in the US economy, the so-called
"Sticky Price Consumer Price Index" (SCPI), which is calculated on the
basis of a subset of goods and services included in the CPI whose prices
change relatively infrequently, so they are not affected by changes in
demand. This
index again shows a much higher rate of inflation, currently at 4.2%
year-on-year, which is three times higher than at the beginning of 2021.
US inflation at "sticky" prices
This
measure suggests that inflation is entrenched in the economy and that
businesses are taking every opportunity to raise prices, but no
opportunity to lower them. Don't
forget that American households have seen an average 20% increase in
the prices of the goods and services they buy over the last three years,
so the current slowdown in inflation simply means that prices are still
rising, but not as fast. This
price inflation has eaten into the real incomes of most Americans in
recent years, so that their standard of living has deteriorated, even
though they all have a job (usually a low-paid one in the service
sector).
Contrary to what the Fed says, the "war on inflation" has
therefore not yet been won. As a result, the Fed has still not lowered
its key interest rate. However,
the Fed's high policy rate is keeping borrowing rates high, which
affects the profits of small businesses in particular, which often need
to borrow to invest and create jobs, as well as household credit card
and mortgage rates.
This
raises the question of whether the US economy is really making progress
and thus avoiding a downturn caused by the pressure on profits due to
high interest rates. The latest estimate of real GDP growth in the US
for the second quarter of this year, which rose from 1.4% in the first
quarter to 2.8% year-on-year, has attracted a lot of attention. But this headline has many flaws.
First,
it is an "annualized" rate, which means that the quarterly increase in
real GDP in the second quarter was actually only 0.7%. Second, the
headline rate includes important contributions from the following areas:
health services (0.45 percentage points), inventories (0.82 percentage
points) and government spending (0.53 percentage points). Health
services are actually a measure of rising health insurance costs, not
better health care, and those costs have skyrocketed over the last three
years. Inventories are stocks of unsold goods, in other words,
production without sales; and government spending was mainly on defense
production, which is hardly a productive contribution.
If
you strip out all of those components and look at what are called "real
final sales to domestic private buyers," a better measure of US
economic activity, there was no improvement from the weak first quarter.
In fact, real final sales growth was zero in the first half of this
year, compared to around 2% for the whole of 2023.
And
consumer sales were better than real personal income growth. On
average, American households are now seeing only a very small increase
in real income after two years of declines. Real disposable personal
income (that is, income that people have after inflation and taxes) rose
by only 1% on an annual basis, slower than in the first quarter.
No
wonder US consumer sentiment has fallen to its lowest level in eight
months. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index reached
66.4 in July, its lowest level since November. The
established economists, who assume that consumer spending and income
are booming, are puzzled by this and talk of a "vibecession". American
households do not seem to realize that they are doing very well! But
"high prices continue to weigh on sentiment, especially among those with
lower incomes," says Joanne Hsu, head of the survey in Michigan. That's
the consumer front.
Big
Tech has fully committed to the huge profits expected from AI. They
have made investments on an unprecedented scale, becoming the main
driver of corporate investment in the US economy. Microsoft
has stated that "we expect a significant increase in capital
expenditures this year" and that "short-term AI demand is slightly
exceeding our available capacity". Amazon says that strong demand for
cloud services and AI means that the company will "significantly
increase" its capital expenditures. Meta
says that AI will lead to higher investments both this year and through
2025. However, doubts are being raised about the rapid realization of
higher profits through AI, and if Big Tech starts to cut its spending,
this will also have an impact on the companies' economies. There is
increasing talk of a "tail risk" for the stock market.
Is there more to come?
The
stock prices of the delivery service UPS, which is often considered an
indicator of the economy in general, also fell by 12% after UPS withdrew
its forecasts for the rest of the year. Since the end of the pandemic,
there has been a huge increase in investment in transportation equipment
to cope with the increase in global production. However, this
development seems to be coming to an end.
On employment
As
for employment, the overall picture here is also one of weaker
employment growth and rising unemployment. ADP data shows that the
number of people employed in small businesses with 20 to 49 employees
has fallen by 88,000 year-on-year. And the trend is negative for all but
the very large companies.
The momentum of economic activity is weakening.
To sum up, the US Federal Reserve will almost certainly start cutting its interest rate at its September meeting – that is what it has indicated.
It has no other choice if it wants to avoid stagnation or even recession in the economy, as the Bank of England is already doing. The Fed will have to live with the fact that it will not achieve its inflation target of 2%. And American households will be faced with even higher inflation in stores and for essential services.
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