Escalation in the Middle East: Netanyahu's egomaniacal game

Editorial by Judith Poppe

[This editorial posted on 8/8/2024 is translated from the German on the Internet, https://www.woz.ch/2432/eskalation-im-nahen-osten/das-egomanische-spiel-netanjahus/!5Z79BK4B3BEX.]

On Tuesday, a swarm of attack drones swooped down on northern Israel. But this was not yet the retaliatory strike that Israel was expecting, the Iranian-led Hezbollah, which had sent the drones, hastened to explain. Less than a week after first Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukr in Beirut and then Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniya in Tehran were killed in quick succession, the Middle East continues to hold its breath - and with it the whole world.

Airlines are suspending flights and the foreign ministries of many countries are preparing to evacuate their citizens from the region. The protest movement on the streets of Israel resembles a Cassandra call. The extreme right-wing Netanyahu government is ignoring them.

War in the Middle East

The strategy pursued by Israel's opportunistic head of government is aimed at aggravating the situation: he still wants to prevent a Palestinian state with all his might; he has repeatedly made negotiations on a ceasefire and the release of Israeli hostages more difficult, even when Hamas made relevant concessions. Israeli intelligence chiefs are now also accusing him of delaying the negotiations.

In order to save himself from the threat of prison for corruption, Netanyahu is accepting the destruction of democracy just as much as he is endangering the country's security and jeopardizing the vital alliance with the USA. Joe Biden still holds a protective hand over Israel. But most recently he is said to have hissed “Don't fuck with me!” into the telephone receiver when Netanyahu tried to make him believe that there was progress in the negotiations with Hamas.

The targeted killings are primarily to be interpreted as a demonstration of power. Hamas and Hezbollah should not be weakened by this, but rather further radicalized. This is illustrated by the election of hardliner Yahya Sinwar as Ismail Haniya's successor on Tuesday. If Netanyahu were to devote even an ounce of his mental energy to the hostages, he could not have chosen a worse time for the killings, especially as Haniya represented those in the Hamas politburo who were pushing for an agreement.

The consequences are still difficult to foresee. Last Monday, the highest-ranking US general responsible for the Middle East arrived in Israel to discuss the expected retaliatory strike and defense strategies. At the same time, the Secretary of the Russian Security Council traveled to Iran. According to a report in the New York Times, which cites high-ranking Iranian sources, Russia has begun delivering air defense and radar equipment to Iran.

However, it is still questionable whether the theocracy's interest in an open war with Israel is currently high. It is possible that the retaliatory strike will be similar to last April, when the country fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel for the first time. However, it is also possible that it will be coordinated: The Huthi in Yemen and pro-Iranian groups in Syria and Iraq could take part. In view of the geographical proximity, most Israelis are primarily looking at the large arsenal of the Iranian-led Lebanese Hezbollah. Hamas, on the other hand, is currently too weakened militarily to be able to carry out major attacks.

It would be important for Israel to strengthen its existing partnerships in the Middle East, such as those with Jordan and Egypt, instead of jeopardizing them, and to pave the way for possible new peace agreements instead of sabotaging them, above all with Saudi Arabia. With his egomaniacal game, Benjamin Netanyahu is instead driving Israel even closer to the abyss.